Crude Oil Market Analysis Report

2025-05-23 23:47

Table of Contents

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Moderately Bearish
Score: -2/5
Short: BUY | Medium: BUY | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $64.44 $0.47
WTI: $61.2 $0.37
Spread: $3.24 (Brent premium of $3.24)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: 443,158 (0)
Net Imports: 2,582 (0)

News Sentiment

NEUTRAL

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 606,308
Weekly Change: 4,897

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -2 (Moderately Bearish)
Current Price: $61.76
Signal: Moderately Bearish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BULLISH

MA(9): $62.3

MA(20): $60.8

Current Price is 61.76, 9 day MA 62.3, 20 day MA 60.8

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: -0.2843

Signal: -0.5776

Days since crossover: 11

MACD crossed the line 11 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 49.0

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 49.0 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 250,701

Avg (20d): 275,534

Ratio: 0.91

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BEARISH CROSS

%K: 66.06

%D: 67.65

Stochastic %K: 66.06, %D: 67.65. Signal: bearish cross

ADX (14)

WEAK TREND

ADX: 21.05

+DI: 18.13

-DI: 22.95

ADX: 21.05 (+DI: 18.13, -DI: 22.95). Trend: weak trend

Williams %R (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: -33.94

Williams %R: -33.94 (neutral zone)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

ABOVE MIDDLE

Upper: 64.51

Middle: 60.8

Lower: 57.1

Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 64.51, Middle: 60.8, Lower: 57.1

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production 13392.0 13387.0 13100.0 12433.33
Crude Imports 6089.0 5841.0 6744.0 6333.0
Crude Exports 3507.0 3369.0 4135.0 4540.0
Refinery Inputs 16490.0 16401.0 16255.0 16273.33
Net Imports 2582.0 2472.0 2609.0 1793.0
Commercial Crude Stocks 443158.0 441830.0 457020.0 444604.67
Crude & Products Total Stocks 1623569.0 1617795.0 1610810.0 1631634.0
Gasoline Stocks 225522.0 224706.0 227767.0 220935.33
Distillate Stocks 104132.0 103553.0 116365.0 109779.0

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (JUL 25) settled at $64.44, change $-0.47. WTI crude (JUL 25) settled at $61.20, change $-0.37. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $3.24 (Brent premium of $3.24). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$64.44
-0.47
(JUL 25)

WTI Crude

$61.2
-0.37
(JUL 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$3.24
Brent premium of $3.24

OPEC Analysis

BEARISH
66.67% confidence
Demand
Production
Stocks
Category Current Value Mean Change Volatility Range
World Demand
Americas 12 12 0 12 to 12
Europe 6 6 0 6 to 7
Asia Pacific 3 3 0 3 to 3
Middle East 4 4 0 4 to 4
Africa 2 2 0 2 to 2
Production
(b) Total Non-DoC liquids production and DoC NGLs 63 73 25 57 to 126
DoC crude oil production 0 15 21 0 to 42
Non-DoC liquids production 192 209 87 113 to 379
Non-OPEC DoC crude production 0 5 7 0 to 15
OPEC crude oil production (secondary sources) 0 9 13 0 to 27
Total Non-DoC liquids production 63 73 25 57 to 126
Total Non-DoC production 55 63 22 49 to 109
Total liquids production 0 37 51 0 to 103
Non-DoC liquids production and DoC NGLs 64 76 27 61 to 126
Non-DoC production 55 66 23 53 to 109
Stock Levels
Commercial 2,752 2,770 15 2,752 to 2,781
Oil-on-water 1,373 1,452 87 1,373 to 1,545
SPR 1,245 1,238 14 1,206 to 1,245
Total 3,997 3,992 6 3,984 to 3,997
Last updated: 2025-05-23 23:47:03

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-02-01

Large Speculators

368,904
Change: -4,511
17.6% of OI

Non-Commercial

606,308
Change: -4,897
29.0% of OI

Open Interest

2,093,735
Change: -2,259

Summary Analysis:

CFTC CoT Report as of 2025-02-01

Crude Oil Positioning (Legacy Report):

Open Interest: 2,093,735 contracts (-2,259)

Non-Commercial Net Position: 606,308 contracts (29.0% of OI)

Weekly Change in Non-Commercial Net: -4,897 contracts

Large Speculator Net Position: 368,904 contracts (17.6% of OI)

Market Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening

Positioning Analysis: Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Non-commercial (speculative) traders often lead price movements in Crude Oil.

- Extreme positioning can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, released each Friday at 3:30 PM ET.

About CoT Reports:

The CFTC Commitment of Traders (CoT) reports provide a breakdown of open interest for futures markets.

They show the positions of different types of traders, helping to assess market sentiment and potential price movements.

The Legacy report divides traders into 'Commercial' (hedgers) and 'Non-Commercial' (speculators) categories.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

NEUTRAL
Average Polarity: -0.073
Confidence: 1.35
Articles Analyzed: 81
Last Updated: 2025-05-23 23:47:03

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.07

Top News Topics

Supply

11 articles

Demand

5 articles

Geopolitical

4 articles

Weather

1 articles

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment: Moderate market volatility

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

99.1
Daily: -0.86 (-0.86%)
Weekly: -1.33 (-1.32%)

US_10Y

4.51
Daily: -0.04 (-0.97%)
Weekly: 0.03 (0.76%)

SP500

5802.82
Daily: -39.19 (-0.67%)
Weekly: -160.78 (-2.7%)

VIX

22.29
Daily: 2.01 (9.91%)
Weekly: 4.15 (22.88%)

GOLD

3357.7
Daily: 65.4 (1.99%)
Weekly: 128.8 (3.99%)

COPPER

4.83
Daily: 0.18 (3.96%)
Weekly: 0.2 (4.29%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $61.76
Closest Support: $61.68 0.13% below current price
Closest Resistance: $63.7 3.14% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $55.12
0.236 $59.17
0.382 $61.68 Support
0.5 $63.7 Resistance
0.618 $65.72
0.786 $68.61
1.0 $72.28

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $76.95
1.618 $82.88
2.0 $89.44
2.618 $100.04

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $61.2
Forecast Generated: 2025-05-23 23:47:04
Next Trading Day: DOWN 0.04%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-05-23 $61.18 $58.7 $63.65
2025-05-24 $61.2 $58.72 $63.67
2025-05-25 $61.24 $58.76 $63.71
2025-05-26 $61.31 $58.83 $63.78
2025-05-27 $61.33 $58.85 $63.8

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.04% for the next trading day (2025-05-23), reaching $61.18.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-05-23 and 2025-05-27.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~8.1% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Bearish signal, moderate uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

Current market data indicates a neutral sentiment, with the Brent-WTI spread at $3.24, suggesting a divergence in global versus U.S. supply dynamics. This spread could indicate short-term opportunities to capitalize on price differentials.

Technical positioning shows weakening bullish sentiment among non-commercial traders, which may signal potential price corrections. Watch for support levels around recent lows, as a breach could lead to increased volatility.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

The increase in commercial crude stocks by +1328.00 million barrels reflects a potential oversupply situation, which could pressure prices further. Producers should consider hedging strategies to mitigate price risks amidst fluctuating inventory levels.

With the current neutral sentiment and OPEC+ supply discussions, it is crucial to monitor production levels and adjust output accordingly to maintain market balance.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

Given the current neutral market sentiment and potential input cost fluctuations, consumers should prepare for price volatility in crude oil. The Brent-WTI spread indicates that U.S. crude may offer cost advantages in some markets.

Geopolitical risks, particularly in the Middle East, could affect supply reliability. It is advisable for consumers to consider procuring hedging options to protect against price spikes.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The current Crude Oil market presents a neutral outlook, driven by a combination of factors including rising inventories, geopolitical tensions, and OPEC+ supply dynamics. The bearish sentiment in news articles highlights concerns over demand and geopolitical risks.

Positioning data suggests that while non-commercial traders remain bullish, the weakening trend could indicate an impending shift. Analysts should closely monitor these indicators for potential outlook shifts in the coming weeks.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.

Energy Markets Report - Generated on 2025-05-23 23:47

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