Crude Oil Market Analysis Report

2025-05-21 19:04

Table of Contents

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Moderately Bearish
Score: -2/5
Short: BUY | Medium: BUY | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $65.38 $0.16
WTI: $62.56 $0.13
Spread: $2.82 (Brent premium of $2.82)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: 443,158 (0)
Net Imports: 2,582 (0)

News Sentiment

NEUTRAL

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 606,308
Weekly Change: 4,897

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -2 (Moderately Bearish)
Current Price: $61.24
Signal: Moderately Bearish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BULLISH

MA(9): $62.27

MA(20): $60.93

Current Price is 61.24, 9 day MA 62.27, 20 day MA 60.93

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: -0.3177

Signal: -0.7403

Days since crossover: 9

MACD crossed the line 9 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 47.1

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 47.1 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 1,489

Avg (20d): 254,702

Ratio: 0.01

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BEARISH CROSS

%K: 69.07

%D: 79.81

Stochastic %K: 69.07, %D: 79.81. Signal: bearish cross

ADX (14)

WEAK TREND

ADX: 23.77

+DI: 17.94

-DI: 25.77

ADX: 23.77 (+DI: 17.94, -DI: 25.77). Trend: weak trend

Williams %R (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: -30.93

Williams %R: -30.93 (neutral zone)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

ABOVE MIDDLE

Upper: 64.83

Middle: 60.93

Lower: 57.04

Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 64.83, Middle: 60.93, Lower: 57.04

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production 13392.0 13387.0 13100.0 12433.33
Crude Imports 6089.0 5841.0 6744.0 6333.0
Crude Exports 3507.0 3369.0 4135.0 4540.0
Refinery Inputs 16490.0 16401.0 16255.0 16273.33
Net Imports 2582.0 2472.0 2609.0 1793.0
Commercial Crude Stocks 443158.0 441830.0 457020.0 444604.67
Crude & Products Total Stocks 1623569.0 1617795.0 1610810.0 1631634.0
Gasoline Stocks 225522.0 224706.0 227767.0 220935.33
Distillate Stocks 104132.0 103553.0 116365.0 109779.0

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (JUL 25) settled at $65.38, change $-0.16. WTI crude (JUN 25) settled at $62.56, change $-0.13. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $2.82 (Brent premium of $2.82). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$65.38
-0.16
(JUL 25)

WTI Crude

$62.56
-0.13
(JUN 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$2.82
Brent premium of $2.82

OPEC Analysis

BEARISH
66.67% confidence
Demand
Production
Stocks
Category Current Value Mean Change Volatility Range
World Demand
Americas 12 12 0 12 to 12
Europe 6 6 0 6 to 7
Asia Pacific 3 3 0 3 to 3
Middle East 4 4 0 4 to 4
Africa 2 2 0 2 to 2
Production
(b) Total Non-DoC liquids production and DoC NGLs 63 73 25 57 to 126
DoC crude oil production 0 15 21 0 to 42
Non-DoC liquids production 192 209 87 113 to 379
Non-OPEC DoC crude production 0 5 7 0 to 15
OPEC crude oil production (secondary sources) 0 9 13 0 to 27
Total Non-DoC liquids production 63 73 25 57 to 126
Total Non-DoC production 55 63 22 49 to 109
Total liquids production 0 37 51 0 to 103
Non-DoC liquids production and DoC NGLs 64 76 27 61 to 126
Non-DoC production 55 66 23 53 to 109
Stock Levels
Commercial 2,752 2,770 15 2,752 to 2,781
Oil-on-water 1,373 1,452 87 1,373 to 1,545
SPR 1,245 1,238 14 1,206 to 1,245
Total 3,997 3,992 6 3,984 to 3,997
Last updated: 2025-05-21 19:04:25

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-02-01

Large Speculators

368,904
Change: -4,511
17.6% of OI

Non-Commercial

606,308
Change: -4,897
29.0% of OI

Open Interest

2,093,735
Change: -2,259

Summary Analysis:

CFTC CoT Report as of 2025-02-01

Crude Oil Positioning (Legacy Report):

Open Interest: 2,093,735 contracts (-2,259)

Non-Commercial Net Position: 606,308 contracts (29.0% of OI)

Weekly Change in Non-Commercial Net: -4,897 contracts

Large Speculator Net Position: 368,904 contracts (17.6% of OI)

Market Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening

Positioning Analysis: Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Non-commercial (speculative) traders often lead price movements in Crude Oil.

- Extreme positioning can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, released each Friday at 3:30 PM ET.

About CoT Reports:

The CFTC Commitment of Traders (CoT) reports provide a breakdown of open interest for futures markets.

They show the positions of different types of traders, helping to assess market sentiment and potential price movements.

The Legacy report divides traders into 'Commercial' (hedgers) and 'Non-Commercial' (speculators) categories.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

NEUTRAL
Average Polarity: -0.029
Confidence: 1.35
Articles Analyzed: 58
Last Updated: 2025-05-21 19:04:26

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.03

Top News Topics

Supply

3 articles

Demand

4 articles

Geopolitical

3 articles

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment: Moderate market volatility

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

99.69
Daily: -0.43 (-0.43%)
Weekly: -1.19 (-1.18%)

US_10Y

4.6
Daily: 0.11 (2.57%)
Weekly: 0.14 (3.16%)

SP500

5844.61
Daily: -95.85 (-1.61%)
Weekly: -72.32 (-1.22%)

VIX

20.87
Daily: 2.78 (15.37%)
Weekly: 3.04 (17.05%)

GOLD

3320.0
Daily: 39.7 (1.21%)
Weekly: 99.3 (3.08%)

COPPER

4.66
Daily: 0.04 (0.77%)
Weekly: 0.01 (0.23%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $61.24
Closest Support: $59.17 3.38% below current price
Closest Resistance: $61.68 0.72% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $55.12
0.236 $59.17 Support
0.382 $61.68 Resistance
0.5 $63.7
0.618 $65.72
0.786 $68.61
1.0 $72.28

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $76.95
1.618 $82.88
2.0 $89.44
2.618 $100.04

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $62.56
Forecast Generated: 2025-05-21 19:04:26
Next Trading Day: UP 0.09%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-05-21 $62.62 $59.98 $65.26
2025-05-22 $62.7 $60.06 $65.34
2025-05-23 $62.64 $60.0 $65.28
2025-05-24 $62.62 $59.98 $65.26
2025-05-25 $62.63 $59.99 $65.27

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price increase of ~0.09% for the next trading day (2025-05-21), reaching $62.62.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-05-21 and 2025-05-25.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~8.4% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Bullish signal, moderate uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

The current market dynamics suggest a neutral sentiment overall, with the Brent-WTI spread at $2.82, indicating a slight premium for Brent due to supply/demand dynamics and geopolitical factors. The increase in commercial crude stocks by +1328.00 million barrels may signal a potential resistance level, while the support could be identified around recent lows. Traders should monitor the geopolitical risks that could impact volatility, particularly given the weakening bullish sentiment in CFTC positioning, where non-commercial net positions have decreased by -4,897 contracts. Short-term opportunities may arise from price corrections or fluctuations in response to external news.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

With commercial crude stocks rising by +1328.00 million barrels, producers should consider adjusting their production planning to align with potential shifts in demand. The neutral sentiment in the market suggests caution in hedging strategies, especially in light of the geopolitical uncertainties affecting supply reliability. Additionally, the Brent-WTI spread indicates that while Brent remains more expensive, it may affect export strategies and pricing decisions. Monitoring inventory levels closely will be essential to manage operational efficiency and market positioning.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

As crude oil prices remain relatively stable, with WTI at $62.56 and Brent at $65.38, consumers should prepare for potential fluctuations in input costs. The geopolitical risks highlighted in recent news could impact supply reliability, necessitating a review of procurement strategies. The neutral market sentiment suggests that while immediate price hikes may not be imminent, vigilance is warranted. Companies should consider implementing hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with price volatility and ensure stable supply chains.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market is currently characterized by a neutral sentiment, with key drivers including a significant increase in commercial crude stocks and a weakening bullish sentiment in speculative positioning. The Brent-WTI spread remains a crucial indicator of market dynamics, reflecting fundamental imbalances between global and U.S. supply. Analysts should closely monitor geopolitical developments and their potential impacts on market sentiment and price movements, as these factors could lead to shifts in outlook. The convergence of supply concerns and demand uncertainties presents a complex landscape for forecasting future trends.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.

Energy Markets Report - Generated on 2025-05-21 19:04

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