Crude Oil Market Analysis Report

2025-05-19 23:47

Table of Contents

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Moderately Bearish
Score: -3/5
Short: BUY | Medium: BUY | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $65.41 $0.88
WTI: $62.49 $0.87
Spread: $2.92 (Brent premium of $2.92)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: 441,830 (0)
Net Imports: 2,472 (0)

News Sentiment

NEUTRAL

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 606,308
Weekly Change: 4,897

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -3 (Moderately Bearish)
Current Price: $62.69
Signal: Moderately Bearish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BULLISH

MA(9): $61.62

MA(20): $61.07

Current Price is 62.69, 9 day MA 61.62, 20 day MA 61.07

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: -0.397

Signal: -0.9836

Days since crossover: 7

MACD crossed the line 7 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 51.87

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 51.87 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 131

Avg (20d): 279,866

Ratio: 0.0

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

OVERBOUGHT

%K: 85.93

%D: 80.95

Stochastic %K: 85.93, %D: 80.95. Signal: overbought

ADX (14)

STRONG DOWNTREND

ADX: 25.55

+DI: 18.58

-DI: 25.44

ADX: 25.55 (+DI: 18.58, -DI: 25.44). Trend: strong downtrend

Williams %R (14)

OVERBOUGHT

Value: -14.07

Williams %R: -14.07 (overbought)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

ABOVE MIDDLE

Upper: 65.22

Middle: 61.07

Lower: 56.92

Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 65.22, Middle: 61.07, Lower: 56.92

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production 13387.0 13367.0 13100.0 12400.0
Crude Imports 5841.0 6056.0 6969.0 6724.0
Crude Exports 3369.0 4006.0 4468.0 3988.33
Refinery Inputs 16401.0 16071.0 15948.0 16060.0
Net Imports 2472.0 2050.0 2501.0 2735.67
Commercial Crude Stocks 441830.0 438376.0 459528.0 448488.0
Crude & Products Total Stocks 1617795.0 1612398.0 1606700.0 1634709.0
Gasoline Stocks 224706.0 225728.0 228002.0 222095.33
Distillate Stocks 103553.0 106708.0 116410.0 109287.33

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (JUL 25) settled at $65.41, change $+0.88. WTI crude (JUN 25) settled at $62.49, change $+0.87. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $2.92 (Brent premium of $2.92). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$65.41
0.88
(JUL 25)

WTI Crude

$62.49
0.87
(JUN 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$2.92
Brent premium of $2.92

OPEC Analysis

BEARISH
66.67% confidence
Demand
Production
Stocks
Category Current Value Mean Change Volatility Range
World Demand
Americas 12 12 0 12 to 12
Europe 6 6 0 6 to 7
Asia Pacific 3 3 0 3 to 3
Middle East 4 4 0 4 to 4
Africa 2 2 0 2 to 2
Production
(b) Total Non-DoC liquids production and DoC NGLs 63 73 25 57 to 126
DoC crude oil production 0 15 21 0 to 42
Non-DoC liquids production 192 209 87 113 to 379
Non-OPEC DoC crude production 0 5 7 0 to 15
OPEC crude oil production (secondary sources) 0 9 13 0 to 27
Total Non-DoC liquids production 63 73 25 57 to 126
Total Non-DoC production 55 63 22 49 to 109
Total liquids production 0 37 51 0 to 103
Non-DoC liquids production and DoC NGLs 64 76 27 61 to 126
Non-DoC production 55 66 23 53 to 109
Stock Levels
Commercial 2,752 2,770 15 2,752 to 2,781
Oil-on-water 1,373 1,452 87 1,373 to 1,545
SPR 1,245 1,238 14 1,206 to 1,245
Total 3,997 3,992 6 3,984 to 3,997
Last updated: 2025-05-19 23:46:47

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-02-01

Large Speculators

368,904
Change: -4,511
17.6% of OI

Non-Commercial

606,308
Change: -4,897
29.0% of OI

Open Interest

2,093,735
Change: -2,259

Summary Analysis:

CFTC CoT Report as of 2025-02-01

Crude Oil Positioning (Legacy Report):

Open Interest: 2,093,735 contracts (-2,259)

Non-Commercial Net Position: 606,308 contracts (29.0% of OI)

Weekly Change in Non-Commercial Net: -4,897 contracts

Large Speculator Net Position: 368,904 contracts (17.6% of OI)

Market Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening

Positioning Analysis: Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Non-commercial (speculative) traders often lead price movements in Crude Oil.

- Extreme positioning can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, released each Friday at 3:30 PM ET.

About CoT Reports:

The CFTC Commitment of Traders (CoT) reports provide a breakdown of open interest for futures markets.

They show the positions of different types of traders, helping to assess market sentiment and potential price movements.

The Legacy report divides traders into 'Commercial' (hedgers) and 'Non-Commercial' (speculators) categories.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

NEUTRAL
Average Polarity: 0.001
Confidence: 1.33
Articles Analyzed: 36
Last Updated: 2025-05-19 23:46:47

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

0.0

Top News Topics

Supply

4 articles

Demand

1 articles

Geopolitical

1 articles

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

100.37
Daily: -0.72 (-0.71%)
Weekly: -0.63 (-0.62%)

US_10Y

4.47
Daily: 0.03 (0.77%)
Weekly: -0.02 (-0.53%)

SP500

5963.6
Daily: 5.22 (0.09%)
Weekly: 77.05 (1.31%)

VIX

18.14
Daily: 0.9 (5.22%)
Weekly: -0.08 (-0.44%)

GOLD

3209.9
Daily: 27.9 (0.88%)
Weekly: -30.4 (-0.94%)

COPPER

4.65
Daily: 0.09 (2.07%)
Weekly: -0.03 (-0.67%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $62.69
Closest Support: $61.68 1.61% below current price
Closest Resistance: $63.7 1.61% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $55.12
0.236 $59.17
0.382 $61.68 Support
0.5 $63.7 Resistance
0.618 $65.72
0.786 $68.61
1.0 $72.28

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $76.95
1.618 $82.88
2.0 $89.44
2.618 $100.04

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $62.69
Forecast Generated: 2025-05-19 23:46:48
Next Trading Day: DOWN 0.18%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-05-20 $62.58 $59.75 $65.4
2025-05-21 $62.64 $59.81 $65.46
2025-05-22 $62.72 $59.89 $65.55
2025-05-23 $62.65 $59.83 $65.48
2025-05-24 $62.64 $59.81 $65.47

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.18% for the next trading day (2025-05-20), reaching $62.58.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-05-20 and 2025-05-24.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~9.0% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Bearish signal, moderate uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

Current market dynamics suggest a neutral sentiment with potential for volatility in the near term. The $65.41 for Brent and $62.49 for WTI indicates a Brent premium of $2.92, reflecting ongoing global supply-demand disparities.

With support levels potentially forming around the recent lows, traders should monitor the Brent-WTI spread for indications of market shifts. The bearish sentiment in supply and demand news suggests caution, particularly with oversupply concerns and geopolitical tensions.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

With commercial crude stocks rising by +3454.00 million barrels, producers need to reassess production planning and hedging strategies. The bearish sentiment regarding demand, particularly influenced by U.S.-Iran negotiations, may indicate a need for caution in future investments.

Additionally, the current inventory levels could impact pricing power, necessitating a focus on operational efficiencies and potential market adjustments.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

Consumers should prepare for potential fluctuations in input costs, with WTI and Brent prices hovering around $62.49 and $65.41, respectively. The geopolitical risks and rising inventories may affect supply reliability, prompting a review of procurement strategies.

Given the bearish sentiment in demand, it may be prudent for consumers to consider hedging options to mitigate potential price increases in the coming weeks.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The current Crude Oil market presents a neutral outlook, with key drivers including oversupply concerns and geopolitical uncertainties. The bearish sentiment in supply and demand dynamics, coupled with rising commercial stocks, suggests a cautious approach for the near term.

Market positioning shows non-commercial traders are still active, but with a weakening bullish sentiment. Analysts should closely monitor upcoming reports and geopolitical developments to assess potential shifts in market sentiment and price direction.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.

Energy Markets Report - Generated on 2025-05-19 23:47

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