Crude Oil Market Analysis Report

2025-05-11 23:47

Table of Contents

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Moderately Bearish
Score: -2/5
Short: BUY | Medium: BUY | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $63.91 $1.07
WTI: $61.02 $1.11
Spread: $2.89 (Brent premium of $2.89)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: 438,376 (0)
Net Imports: 2,050 (0)

News Sentiment

NEUTRAL

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 606,308
Weekly Change: 4,897

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -2 (Moderately Bearish)
Current Price: $61.38
Signal: Moderately Bearish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BEARISH

MA(9): $59.15

MA(20): $61.01

Current Price is 61.38, 9 day MA 59.15, 20 day MA 61.01

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: -1.4412

Signal: -1.744

Days since crossover: 2

MACD crossed the line 2 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 48.65

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 48.65 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 13,928

Avg (20d): 265,252

Ratio: 0.05

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BULLISH CROSS

%K: 63.53

%D: 56.35

Stochastic %K: 63.53, %D: 56.35. Signal: bullish cross

ADX (14)

STRONG DOWNTREND

ADX: 32.99

+DI: 17.07

-DI: 25.63

ADX: 32.99 (+DI: 17.07, -DI: 25.63). Trend: strong downtrend

Williams %R (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: -36.47

Williams %R: -36.47 (neutral zone)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

ABOVE MIDDLE

Upper: 65.22

Middle: 61.01

Lower: 56.81

Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 65.22, Middle: 61.01, Lower: 56.81

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production 13367.0 13465.0 13100.0 12400.0
Crude Imports 6056.0 5498.0 6772.0 6263.67
Crude Exports 4006.0 4121.0 3918.0 3407.67
Refinery Inputs 16071.0 16078.0 15641.0 15796.33
Net Imports 2050.0 1377.0 2854.0 2856.0
Commercial Crude Stocks 438376.0 440408.0 460890.0 448775.33
Crude & Products Total Stocks 1612398.0 1610654.0 1607883.0 1634257.0
Gasoline Stocks 225728.0 225540.0 227087.0 224227.0
Distillate Stocks 106708.0 107815.0 115850.0 108864.0

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (JUL 25) settled at $63.91, change $+1.07. WTI crude (JUN 25) settled at $61.02, change $+1.11. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $2.89 (Brent premium of $2.89). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$63.91
1.07
(JUL 25)

WTI Crude

$61.02
1.11
(JUN 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$2.89
Brent premium of $2.89

OPEC Analysis

BEARISH
66.67% confidence
Demand
Production
Stocks
Category Current Value Mean Change Volatility Range
World Demand
Americas 12 12 0 12 to 12
Europe 6 6 0 6 to 7
Asia Pacific 3 3 0 3 to 3
Middle East 4 4 0 4 to 4
Africa 2 2 0 2 to 2
Production
(b) Total Non-DoC liquids production and DoC NGLs 63 73 25 57 to 126
DoC crude oil production 0 15 21 0 to 42
Non-DoC liquids production 192 209 87 113 to 379
Non-OPEC DoC crude production 0 5 7 0 to 15
OPEC crude oil production (secondary sources) 0 9 13 0 to 27
Total Non-DoC liquids production 63 73 25 57 to 126
Total Non-DoC production 55 63 22 49 to 109
Total liquids production 0 37 51 0 to 103
Non-DoC liquids production and DoC NGLs 64 76 27 61 to 126
Non-DoC production 55 66 23 53 to 109
Stock Levels
Commercial 2,752 2,770 15 2,752 to 2,781
Oil-on-water 1,373 1,452 87 1,373 to 1,545
SPR 1,245 1,238 14 1,206 to 1,245
Total 3,997 3,992 6 3,984 to 3,997
Last updated: 2025-05-11 23:46:51

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-02-01

Large Speculators

368,904
Change: -4,511
17.6% of OI

Non-Commercial

606,308
Change: -4,897
29.0% of OI

Open Interest

2,093,735
Change: -2,259

Summary Analysis:

CFTC CoT Report as of 2025-02-01

Crude Oil Positioning (Legacy Report):

Open Interest: 2,093,735 contracts (-2,259)

Non-Commercial Net Position: 606,308 contracts (29.0% of OI)

Weekly Change in Non-Commercial Net: -4,897 contracts

Large Speculator Net Position: 368,904 contracts (17.6% of OI)

Market Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening

Positioning Analysis: Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Non-commercial (speculative) traders often lead price movements in Crude Oil.

- Extreme positioning can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, released each Friday at 3:30 PM ET.

About CoT Reports:

The CFTC Commitment of Traders (CoT) reports provide a breakdown of open interest for futures markets.

They show the positions of different types of traders, helping to assess market sentiment and potential price movements.

The Legacy report divides traders into 'Commercial' (hedgers) and 'Non-Commercial' (speculators) categories.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

NEUTRAL
Average Polarity: -0.015
Confidence: 1.37
Articles Analyzed: 43
Last Updated: 2025-05-11 23:46:51

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.01

Top News Topics

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment: Moderate market volatility

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

100.57
Daily: 0.24 (0.23%)
Weekly: 1.33 (1.35%)

US_10Y

4.38
Daily: 0.0 (0.05%)
Weekly: 0.03 (0.74%)

SP500

5659.91
Daily: -4.03 (-0.07%)
Weekly: 9.53 (0.17%)

VIX

21.9
Daily: -0.58 (-2.58%)
Weekly: -1.74 (-7.36%)

GOLD

3286.3
Daily: -49.1 (-1.47%)
Weekly: -125.1 (-3.67%)

COPPER

4.68
Daily: 0.07 (1.47%)
Weekly: -0.06 (-1.18%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $61.38
Closest Support: $59.4 3.23% below current price
Closest Resistance: $62.05 1.09% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $55.12
0.236 $59.4 Support
0.382 $62.05 Resistance
0.5 $64.18
0.618 $66.32
0.786 $69.37
1.0 $73.25

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $78.18
1.618 $84.45
2.0 $91.38
2.618 $102.58

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $61.02
Forecast Generated: 2025-05-11 23:46:52
Next Trading Day: DOWN 0.05%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-05-10 $60.99 $57.32 $64.66
2025-05-11 $60.82 $57.15 $64.49
2025-05-12 $60.83 $57.16 $64.5
2025-05-13 $60.69 $57.02 $64.36
2025-05-14 $60.62 $56.95 $64.29

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.05% for the next trading day (2025-05-10), reaching $60.99.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-05-10 and 2025-05-14.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~12.1% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Weak bearish signal, high uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

Current market dynamics suggest neutral sentiment with a slight bearish undertone. The Brent-WTI spread at $2.89 indicates a disparity in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, which may present short-term trading opportunities. The recent decline in non-commercial net positions suggests potential volatility ahead, as speculative traders are reducing their exposure.

With commercial crude stocks decreasing by -2032.00 million barrels, this could provide support levels for prices, while resistance might form around the recent highs of $63.91 for Brent and $61.02 for WTI. Traders should watch for any shifts in sentiment or positioning that could signal a reversal.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

With the recent reduction in commercial crude stocks, producers may need to consider adjusting their production planning to align with potential market tightening. The neutral market sentiment indicates that while demand remains steady, price fluctuations could still impact revenue. Hedging strategies should be re-evaluated in light of current Brent-WTI spread dynamics, as maintaining competitiveness may require strategic price locking.

Moreover, the impact of inventory levels should not be overlooked, as ongoing declines could signal a tightening market, suggesting a cautious approach to expansion or new investments.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

Consumers should prepare for potential input cost fluctuations given the current prices of WTI at $61.02 and Brent at $63.91. The neutral sentiment in the market suggests that while prices may stabilize, any geopolitical tensions or inventory changes could lead to sudden increases in costs.

Additionally, the Brent-WTI spread indicates a need for vigilance regarding supply reliability risks. Consumers may want to consider hedging strategies or forward contracts to mitigate the impact of price volatility on procurement.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market is currently characterized by a neutral sentiment with a slight bearish trend as indicated by the CFTC positioning data. Key driving factors include a notable decrease in commercial crude stocks and a Brent-WTI spread of $2.89, reflecting underlying supply/demand dynamics.

Overall, the market appears to be in a delicate balance, with speculative positioning indicating weakening bullish sentiment. Analysts should monitor these trends closely, especially the changes in non-commercial net positions, as they often lead price movements and could signal potential shifts in market outlook.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.

Energy Markets Report - Generated on 2025-05-11 23:47

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